Report raises flags about town's future water capacity

Jeff Helsdon, Editor

To put it simply, Tillsonburg’s future water capacity after the next 15 years is all allocated. But it’s not that simple.

Oxford County’s Director of Public Works, Melissa Abercrombie, and Don Ford, Senior Manager of Water and Wastewater Services, presented council with a review of the town’s water capacity at the May 25 meeting.

To start, Abercrombie explained the five-year building permit average is trending higher than what was accounted for in the 2024 Water and Wastewater Master Plan. Another part of the equation is that the county updated its growth forecasts and land needs analysis in March 2026. As part of that review, Tillsonburg council requested that more land be set aside for industrial and commercial use, which could increase demand if an industry with high water use opened.

Ford explained the technical background, noting that the town’s dynamic water supply capacity accounts for wells that are offline and planned to be brought back into service.

The current water supply is 10,066 cubic meters per day. The current average measured flows are 8,587 cubic meters per day, for a utilization rate of 85 per cent.

“Supply must be able to meet peak demand while maintaining reservoir levels required for fire protection,” he said.

The estimated future water system capacity is 13,262 cubic meters per day – this includes work on Well 4, the rehabilitation of Well 6A in 2027, bringing Well 3 into service in 2027, redrilling Well 11, and the rehabilitation of Well 2A. Taking the planned work into consideration, this brings the current utilization down to 74 per cent. However, when all current committed capacity, and conditionally committed capacity including draft approved plan of subdivisions, draft approved plan of condominiums, draft approved plan of industrial, commercial and institutional subdivisions, and any submitted or circulated site plans are added, utilization is 100 per cent.

“Based on the five-year average of building permits issued for new dwelling units as an indicator of the current residential growth levels, the 13,262 cubic meters per day of future water dynamic supply would be adequate out to 2045,” he explained.

However, if allocation is based on current growth analysis studies, the water supply would only be adequate to 2041.

“These estimates only use residential units for the future allocation, there is no separate industrial estimate,” Ford said, adding that more capacity would be needed to allocate for a future large industrial user.

But the hitch is that that much of the allocated water usage for development isn't being utilized because some of the subdivisions aren’t moving forward at this time, and the allocation is for the entire development.

“County staff estimate as much as one-third of allocation could potentially be recovered to allocate to other developments,” Ford said. “Comments on new development files will begin to reflect 100 per cent of water capacity is currently considered allocated.”

Manager of Development Planning Eric Gilbert told council that county council adopted a Water and Wastewater Allocation Policy, a “use it or lose it” strategy last October. What this means is if developers don’t use their water allocation within three years, the county can reallocate the approved water usage to another development.

He explained that in Tillsonburg, there are two larger draft subdivision plans totaling 1,600 units that haven’t been built and are up for the three-year review. He said that, as per the allocation policy, only a first phase of 150 units may be approved through the review of these plans, and the remaining capacity allocation would lapse and be available for reallocation.

Gilbert said, for example, that that if an application for 500 units were proposed, only 150 might be approved in the first phase. Then the developer could apply to proceed to a second phase once the first phase is largely complete.

“Essentially that lets us manage the capacity, we manage the finite capacity we have,” he said.

Ford said a long-term water strategy for Tillsonburg and South Oxford systems will be completed in the second quarter of 2027. Some of the possibilities that may be examined are connecting water systems in the south part of the county, well development, or a connection to Lake Erie.

County staff reiterated that there is sufficient water capacity for what’s approved and that there is no need to spend money on development yet, as there is enough water to go beyond 2040.

Coun. Kelly Spencer asked how industrial development is taken into consideration.

Ford explained that large industrial-commercial-institutional (ICI) users are considered separately. Depending on the use, ICI applications are converted into residential units, he explained.

“If we have another large water user come forward, they submit a functional servicing report with water capacity requested as cubic meters per day that can then be used to determine the number of residential units to be reallocated, however, there is no way to know what type of ICI users there will be in future” he said.

Coun. Chris Parker asked if there is a risk to the municipality if pre-approved subdivisions have their water capacity taken back.

Ford said only those with conditional capacity could lose it. He emphasized that those with developed lots won’t lose their approved water capacity.

Answering another question from Parker about how water supply could be increased, Ford said both the long- and short-term water strategy will be examined in the water study.

Coun. Chris Rosehart questioned why there isn’t greater emphasis on cisterns to reduce the need for water.

Abercrombie explained that homeowners have to be careful about having multiple water sources in a residential unit (a cistern with eavestrough water and municipal water, for example), and that the province doesn’t have many policies on this.

“We wouldn’t want anyone to misunderstand what is drinking water in their homes,” she said.

Rosehart said cisterns would only be hooked up to waterlines for outside the home.

Abercrombie explained that once a second water system is connected, how would a future homeowner know which water is from the cistern? She said the province is looking into this, and that different-colored pipes may be a solution.

“I’m really struggling with that because when you go to Europe all the homes have cisterns,” Rosehart said.

Ford explained that there have been some issues with sand points and that backflow protection to prevent them from contaminating the municipal water system is required for them. He added that there is new technology that will involve reusing grey water that is also being explored.

Coun. Pete Luciani asked if water storage and a water tower will be in the future. Ford answered that this will be looked at in the long-term strategy, including whether lake water is brought to Tillsonburg, how it will be treated, and how it will be stored.

Mayor Deb Gilvesy questioned how development applications will be accepted in the interim, and if the town should be accepting more.

Gilbert said that in the immediate future, any applications coming to council will be those that were previously submitted and already accounted for in terms of water allocation. Developers will be made aware of the time limitations associated with the water application, and reallocation will take place if development doesn’t proceed. On the industrial side, he said industries that are lower water users may be looked at more favourably.

“There may be other applications that could proceed because they don’t have a significant water draw, or they can implement water recycling to reduce their water demand,” he said.

With the Fairview Water Treatment Facility Well 7A under construction, Gilvesy asked if there would be an impact this summer.

Ford said with 85 per cent utilization, and the conservation bylaw, where watering takes place on odd and even days, it shouldn’t be an issue.

“I’ve talked to operations and they’re confident there’s not a capacity issue at this time,” he said.

Deputy Mayor Dave Beres wanted to know in the long term, if water was brought in from Lake Erie if it would be treated closer to the lake or when it’s brought to town. Ford answered that was a technical question that would be addressed down the road.

Council accepted the report for information.