Experts agree winter was colder, snowier

Jeff Helsdon, Editor

Those who believe the weather this winter was more like winter used to be would be correct.

“It has been colder and snowier than normal, but many would say it’s just a classic Canadian winter. It’s the way winter used to be,” said Doug Gillham, senior meteorologist at Weather Network.

He admitted winters like the present one are less common, but pointed out 2022 was comparable, and last winter was cold, but not for as long. The winters of 2023 and 2024, however, were milder.

“Winters like this have become less common,” Gilham agreed.

January thaws are common, but this year saw the thaw in the second week of January rather than in the middle of a cold spell, followed by consistent cold from Jan. 18 until mid-February, with the exception of temperatures crossing the freezing line on Feb. 10.

Two cold winters after a couple of mild ones spark debate over whether climate change is occurring. Gilham explained warming goal temperatures have moved the “goal posts” where warm winters will be warmer and cold winters not as cold as it once might have been.

“It certainly doesn’t mean you can’t have a classic Canadian winter. It just means they won’t happen as often and be as severe,” he explained.

Environment Canada meteorologist Steven Flisfeder said December was two to three degrees below seasonal medians, as was January. February was colder than normal, but warmer weather at the end of the month pushed it closer to normal.

Saying he didn’t have great data, Flisfeder said it did show more snow this winter, with areas closer to Lake Erie getting more snowfall.

Another way to look at the data is the number of Cold Weather Alerts issued by Southwestern Public Health. There were six issued from January to March 2025, but 10 were issued in January and February 2026. The threshold for cold weather alerts is -15˚C without windchill, or -20˚C with wind chill.

Examining this year’s weather from a technical perspective, a weak La Nina current in the Pacific Ocean generated a wavier jet stream pattern over North America. Gilham explained this can make southern Ontario winters either warmer or colder. This year, it disrupted the polar vortex, allowing the coldest air in the hemisphere to move over eastern Canada and farther south. Low temperature records were broken all the way down to Cuba.

The situation in western Canada was different.

“At times, the prairies were severely cold, but also had record-breaking warmth,” Gilham said. “They had a temperature roller coaster.”

The south coast of British Columbia didn’t get much of a winter at all.

After the two mild winters in 2023 and 2024, some Southwestern Ontario residents may have had a false complacency that winter isn’t as bad as it used to be, believing they don’t need snow tires anymore, and making other wrong assumptions. Or, likewise, with the last two winters being cold, they may assume cold winters are back to stay.

With two cold winters under our belts, Gilham said not to make assumptions about next year. He again emphasized not to make conclusions about climate change either.

“You can’t take one season in your particular area and say it proves or disproves climate change,” he explained. “Globally, it is warmer overall. You have to look at the big picture long term when you’re talking about the state of the global climate.”