Tillsonburg leads county in predicted growth percentage

Jeff Helsdon, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

A study on growth analysis shows Tillsonburg leading the county in predicted population growth percentage over the next 40 years.

By 2061, the study predicted Tillsonburg’s population would grow by 20,500 people to 39,300, more than doubling the 2021 population. Percentage-wise, the town is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent per year, which is higher than the county average of 1.4 per cent and the next-highest municipality, Woodstock, which will grow by 1.6 per cent per year. It should be noted that Woodstock’s total growth by 2061 will be 41,600, though.

Oxford County Growth Analysis and Land Needs, being completed by Watson and Associates Economists Ltd., predicts growth in Oxford municipalities decades out to 2061. The purpose of the study is to allow municipalities to prepare their land needs and infrastructure to meet the growth.

Jamie Cook of Watson and Associates explained at the Oct. 14 meeting that interprovincial migration is driving a lot of Oxford’s growth.

In particular, much of the growth is coming from Waterloo and the western Golden Horseshoe. He further explained the migration is being powered by home affordability, creating pressure in the 401 and 403 corridors. He said the growth is more than has been seen provincially.

The study also predicted employment growth over the study period. Tillsonburg is expected to account for 21 per cent of the county's residential growth and 18 per cent of its employment growth. The two main components of the jobs will be 40 per cent in the employment sector, which includes retail, education, and health care, and the same amount in the industrial sector.

More land needed

Breaking down the predicted residential growth, Cook said it equates to 233 new households per year.

Future employment lands are broken down into those in community areas, such as retail and education, and those in industrial areas.

“We’ve already identified there is already a shortfall of commercial lands to accommodate the existing base,” Cook said.

He stressed the need for more community and industrial land in the future. Cook also reminded council it takes years to develop and service land.

“It’s kind of eye-opening when you see the amount of land needed over the next 20 years to accommodate essential growth,” said Coun. Chris Parker.

The push for commercial land

The town’s Economic Development Advisory Committee previously had a look at a draft of the study and recognized the shortfall of commercial land. Speaking at the Sept. 22 meeting, committee chairman Jesse Goossens explained that the committee would like to see the percentage of the town’s available land that is for commercial use increase from 15 to 30 per cent to address the shortfall.

No decision was made on the request until council had the presentation on the study. However, Development Commissioner Cephas Panschow updated council at the Oct. 14 meeting, saying the county had increased the future growth percentage for commercial land to 19 per cent. This would add 10 hectares.

“That could support a lot of commercial growth in Tillsonburg,” he said.

Based on the four per cent increase, council passed a motion to refer the committee’s original request for the increase in the percentage of commercial land back to committee members for discussion.

In a separate issue at the same meeting, council approved a request from E & E McLaughlin Ltd. to include the Norfolk Mall in Oxford County.